College Football Programs Like Stocks – Who Should You Buy? Sell? mail bag recruitment

Recruitment never stops. Nor your questions.

And if we haven’t addressed your question, don’t be discouraged! We’ll discuss some on “Stars Matter,” our weekly employment podcast, which can be found in the “The Andy Staples Show” feed. Look for new episodes every Thursday morning.

(Note: The questions presented have been edited for clarity and length.)

If you think of college football programs as stocks — not just for this year, but for the next 2-5 years — what programs would you buy and sell? – Mark C.

My face lit up when I read this question, not only because I spend a good portion of my free time reading about investing but also because that’s exactly how I see employment. If you look at hiring quarters as a company’s quarterly earnings report, you can get a really cool look at where things are heading. Now in this new era of college football rosters building, pitching the program to the NIL and transfer portal can be earning reports. You read the earnings reports and decide if you want to invest your hard-earned money in this entity.

Here are some programs that come to mind.

Notre Dame – He buys: I see Notre Dame as a fixed income stock that you can count on for consistent performance. Let’s say Notre Dame is Coca-Cola. It’s been around forever, it’s ingrained into the fabric of college football and you know what you’re going to get. But with Marcus Freeman now at the helm, there is a chance for Notre Dame to take the step that most of us considered impossible. Freeman is about to sign one of the best classes in the history of Notre Dame and is doing it in Young and different. If Notre Dame manages to sign the top five chapters — and I expect that to happen in the next few years — this is a stock you want in your portfolio.

Clemson – sold: Clemson is Facebook — eh, meta — to me. It was once one of the most reliable companies to invest in, but things are looking a little suspicious at the moment. Facebook has fallen in recent months as it showed a decline in its new users for the first time in the company’s history. As it turned into a Meta, the earnings report call seemed to lack the kind of direction you’d expect from a company trying to change the world through the metaverse. Doesn’t that sound like Clemson? Tigers were once on top of the world, but when you hear how Dabo Swinney talks about the NIL and the transfer gate, would you really buy that stock? Like Meta, Clemson may succeed in the long run. It has a history of innovation and success. But in fact, you are probably more comfortable transferring your money to a different security method.

Ohio State – He buys: Ohio is the SP 500 ETF. I buy some with every paycheck because it’s something I want to keep until I retire. Some of the sexiest stocks may not outperform on a yearly basis, but sometimes they will—like when the Buckeyes win the national title. At least, you know it’ll be in the College Football Supplement discussion. Even bad years are good years for returns given that the Buckeyes have only lost one season in the past 20 years. Over time – through the good years and the bad years – your wallet will support, no matter the coach. In 30 years, you know the Buckeyes are still out there. They are a program that has never slipped into a long era of mediocrity.

USC – Catch: If this question had been asked right after you rented a Lincoln Riley, I would have told you to buy. But now Riley’s presence – along with Caleb Williams – he have Trojans exaggerated. If you have, wait. If you don’t, this is not where you want to buy. USC is priced as if it were actually in the College Football Playoff. It reminds me of Tesla. You expect good things to come from it in the long run, and in theory, it could change the world, but the stock price reflects on hypothetical innovation in the future rather than what the company is actually doing right now. Tesla is a tech company that uses our driving patterns to create self-driving? amazing. But right now, all I see is a car company struggling with infrastructure and deliveries. Is it an 800 billion dollar company? It has a market value of $3 million per vehicle sold. Ford has about $37,000. Does this sound right? Maybe one day you will do that. But I don’t buy it now at those levels. If you are early and believe with all your heart, you will change the world, great. Hold her and hope she’s right, like I’m with USC.

Georgia – He buys: Georgia is Apple Inc. It is the best company in the world. It prints money and it will stay here for the long haul.

Alabama – He buys: Alabama is Amazon. Things have taken a huge hit in recent months, but are you really worried about things going backwards? Nick Saban lost the national title and made some comments about Texas A&M that they probably shouldn’t have. Amazon is down significantly due to inflation concerns and current economic uncertainty. But are you really not going to buy Amazon when things are bad?

Michigan – Sale: Michigan State is the target. It’s a reliable and integral Saturday shopping spot for everyone, but the company just missed its first-quarter estimates due to negative cash flow, which can be attributed to the current state of the economy and supply chain issues. The CEO also miscalculated the rising costs, which severely affected the company’s share price. Sounds a lot like paying a coach $95 million after one solid season. There are concerns about financing and what that means for performance expectations. Get me out of here.

Tennessee – Good luck. Want a stock that is volatile as hell and has a lot of public interest? Do you like to gamble with an equal chance of winning big and losing 30% per day? Then TN – GameStop! – its yours. There is nothing more volatile in the market at the moment, but there are also not many stocks that are easy to track. Tennessee is in an interesting position right now as it leads the charge for nothing. Will you succeed? Your mood as an investor will determine whether you think this is a good buy.

List the reasons that prompted prospects to drop out of school. As an outside observer and cheerleader, I’d go something like:

1. Change the position of the coach
2. Change the coach
3. There is no chance elsewhere
4. Change in players who have committed or withdrew from the school or the new school

Interested to know if the people closest to the process think differently. – Andy J.

I think you probably get the money with the first two reasons. There is no greater motivation for a change of heart than changing conditions in school, whether that be a change in training, NCAA penalties or anything else you can come up with that changes the paradigm of what this program is.

There are a few I think you’re missing too. The first thing that came to my mind was when a player received an offer from a bigger and more popular show. It happens often. An underrated player gets early attention from a mid-level school, commits early in the process, earns a bunch of offers from national title contenders and turns around late. Also, you have to take into account that not every canceling a commit is a player’s decision. Schools switch over from scholarship offers all the time, which is why you will sometimes see a player who disengages from a top-tier school and later signs up in a school fashion down the food chain. It’s an unfortunate part of the game, but it happens.

I’m curious about how NIL is raising the ranks. Now, I’ll make it to the bottom. In five years? That would probably be #1. Here’s how I’d rank them:

1. Change training.
2. More prestigious offers are coming
3. The school moves from the recruit
4. Change in players who commit old or new school
5. There is no opportunity elsewhere

How cool would it be if Nick Saban responded to Jimbo’s press conference by using him as a passive recruiting tool against Texas A&M? He could have said, “I just heard Jimbo say so clearly that they don’t pay their players in A&M, so why would anyone want to go there?” – Blake B.

It’s funny that you asked this question because I had the exact same idea during Fisher’s press conference last week. But it was the opposite.

What if Jimbo just said, “You’re right, we bought every player in our recruiting class, Nick. Your program is clearly lagging in that respect. And for the recruits out there who are thinking about Texas A&M and Alabama: If you want to be done Compensate you appropriately and justly for your talent, our management directors are open.” This could have been the best elf ever.

What’s interesting is how much coaches are denied that NIL plays a factor. Perhaps it’s out of caution because it’s not clear what the NCAA might say about this in the future (although I’m not sure you could go back in time and penalize schools for operating in the gray zone due to ambiguous and unenforceable rules). Or maybe because we are all conditioned that players receiving money of any kind is the work of the devil.

But why do we even hide it? Because of the rule of temptation? It’s impossible to prove the motivating factor for someone’s commitment – even if everyone knows it’s for money. If I was a coach and my program was swinging at the NIL, I would have bragged about it. I want every recruiter in America to know that my program pays. Money talks. Let her talk.

Would you expect the transfer portal to distribute the best talent among a larger number of teams, an evening of play that has been lopsided for many years due to a few teams enjoying a disproportionate amount of success in hiring? Conversely, could the transfer gate lead to worse chemistry between CFB teams, resulting in a lower quality of play across the board? – Taylor R.

Ostensibly, you would think that having a transfer gate would result in talent being distributed more evenly across the board. All those players stuck behind stars in Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Ohio now have the opportunity to leave and qualify immediately. Perhaps this is a reasonable expectation.

But I also see the other side of the coin, especially now that the transfer gate coincides with the dawn of the NIL era. I use Jordan Addison as an example. He was in the top 300 potential in the 2020 class and ended up in Pittsburgh and won the Biletnikoff Award there. Rather than stay with the Panthers, he entered the transfer gate as a superstar and chose to go to USC. What I fear is that the recruits who end up in middle-class programs will run into centers of power chasing fame and zero fortunes. Is this good for sports?

I will say that is the scariest thing about college football. In the old days, the stars stayed in their schools, and it was the older players who left the field. Now the stars are leaving for bigger shows with more fame? Yikes.

In fact, it will probably land somewhere in the middle. Talent will certainly be more dispersed, but I also wonder if better software would have a greater advantage in the talent department. Can both be true at the same time? When Addison goes to USC, does that mean a former top-level receiver sticking to the Trojans list will move to Oregon? Perhaps that will be the order of things, but I don’t think, by any means, that suddenly the CFP image will be unpredictable as a result of the gate.

As for team harmony, I’m not sure I’d buy this as a problem. Don’t get me wrong, there will be a lot of talk in the locker room about who does what’s money, but college football has always been a massive turnover sport on the list. Each year, coaches go into spring and fall as if they were putting together an entirely new team. This will get more correct now, but I don’t expect the game quality to drop.

(picture Hendon Hooker: Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)